Forestry and Agriculture Biomass Supply Model (FABio)

Since 2014 Öko-Institut is developing the Forestry and Agriculture Biomass Supply Model (FABio). FABio is a simulation model based on systems dynamics to assess the biomass producing sector (agriculture and forestry) at national and international level and important interactions with other biomass consuming sectors (such as transport, energy etc.). The model integrates a number of different production systems and focuses on their interactions but can also be applied to assess detailed supply chains. Data sources are publically available datasets, such as forest inventory data, national statistics and literature values for parameters but it can also be linked to output of other sector models.

In projects the model is currently applied at national level. Both, Forestry und Agriculture modules can be adapted to represent processes at the farm/forest district level. A Land-use module manages transitions between land use categories on the basis of land use and land use change costs. Land use change can be driven economically or through policy measures Important production parameters like crop yield, fertilization, water etc. in agriculture and tree species and age class structure in forestry are considered.

Different biomass production systems are competing with each other. Their dynamics are modelled by translating them into principle components of systems dynamics modelling such as stocks (e.g. areas, biomass or carbon stocks), flows (e.g. area changes, biomass or carbon stock changes), dynamic variables (e.g. prices, yields) und parameters (e.g. costs, efficiencies, conversion factors).

Currently the model is applied in two projects:  UBA Nexus Ressourceneffizienz und Landnutzung and Greenpeace Waldvision 2050.

Contactperson at the OEko-Institute

Dr. Hannes Böttcher

Senior Researcher

Energy & Climate Division

OEko-Institut e.V., Office Berlin

Telefon: +49 030 405085-389

E-Mail: h.boettcher@oeko.de